The second demographic transition and family structure transformations in developing societies
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.51247/pdlc.v7iEspecial1.992Keywords:
second demographic transition; fertility rebound; family structure; Maghreb; developing societies; demographic theoryAbstract
Objective: this reflection article examines whether Second Demographic Transition (SDT) theory — developed to explain sub-replacement fertility and diversifying family forms in Northwestern Europe — adequately describes family change in developing societies, using the Maghreb as a critical test case. Methodology: the study combines a critical synthesis of SDT theory and its major appraisals with publicly available fertility statistics for Algeria and Tunisia (World Bank World Development Indicators; INED, Population et Sociétés), treating both as primary material for conceptual and descriptive analysis rather than for causal statistical testing. Main findings: Algeria's total fertility rate fell from roughly 8.1 children per woman in 1970 to about 2.2 by the early 2000s, then rose again to nearly 2.9 by 2010 before declining once more after 2017 — a non-monotonic trajectory that SDT's unilinear, irreversible model does not anticipate; Tunisia shows a parallel, though not identical, decline-rebound-decline pattern. Applications: the argument speaks to demography, family sociology, and population policy in the Global South, cautioning against importing European-derived stage theories without adaptation. Novelty: by tracing the Maghreb's fertility "roller coaster" against SDT's core predictions, the article extends existing critiques of SDT's Eurocentrism with a concrete, numerically documented developing-region case rarely centered in the theoretical literature
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