Política exterior iraní en Oriente Medio: el gobierno regional del Kurdistán (GRK) como caso de estudio
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.51247/st.v9i3.818Palabras clave:
Política exterior de Irán; Gobierno Regional del Kurdistán (GRK); James N. Rosenau; análisis de política exterior; pragmatismo y cambio ideológico; política de seguridad preventiva; eliminación de amenazas coercitivas; estrategia regional de la CGRIResumen
Este estudio aplica el marco de análisis de política exterior de James N. Rosenau para examinar la evolución de la política de Irán hacia el Gobierno Regional del Kurdistán (GRK) desde el establecimiento de la autonomía kurda en el norte de Irak en 1991 hasta el período posterior al referéndum de independencia de 2017. El objetivo principal es identificar los factores que han configurado los cambios y las continuidades en el enfoque de Irán hacia el GRK y evaluar el valor explicativo de las variables idiosincrásicas, de rol, gubernamentales, sociales y sistémicas de Rosenau. Metodológicamente, el estudio adopta un enfoque cualitativo e histórico-analítico basado en la revisión de literatura académica, declaraciones oficiales, documentos de política y fuentes secundarias sobre las relaciones entre Irán y el GRK. Los hallazgos revelan que la política de Irán ha evolucionado desde una orientación predominantemente ideológica arraigada en los principios de la Revolución Islámica hacia una estrategia de seguridad más pragmática y cada vez más preventiva, impulsada por preocupaciones de seguridad nacional, competencia por el poder regional y consideraciones de estabilidad interna. En particular, el referéndum de independencia del KRG de 2017 marcó un punto de inflexión crítico, impulsando a Irán a adoptar una postura coercitiva más firme y preventiva, que incluye la identificación y eliminación de las amenazas percibidas dentro del territorio del KRG, como instrumento principal de su política regional centrada en la seguridad. El análisis demuestra además que, a pesar de las variaciones en los estilos de liderazgo presidencial desde Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani hasta Masoud Pezeshkian, los objetivos centrales de Irán se mantuvieron en gran medida consistentes debido a la influencia decisiva del Líder Supremo y las instituciones de seguridad, en particular el Cuerpo de la Guardia Revolucionaria Islámica (CGRI). El estudio concluye que las variables gubernamentales y sistémicas ejercen una mayor influencia que los rasgos de liderazgo individuales en la configuración de la política a largo plazo de Irán hacia el KRG, y que la dimensión de seguridad preventiva de esta política se ha convertido en su característica definitoria en el período posterior al referéndum
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Derechos de autor 2026 Kardo Rached, kawsar Fattahi
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