Iranian Foreign Policy in the Middle East: The KRG as a Case Study
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.51247/st.v9i3.818Keywords:
Iran foreign policy; Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG); James N. Rosenau; foreign policy analysis; pragmatism and ideology shift; preemptive security policy; coercive threat elimination; IRGC regional strategy.Abstract
This study applies James N. Rosenau's Foreign Policy Analysis framework to examine the evolution of Iran's policy toward the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) from the establishment of Kurdish autonomy in northern Iraq in 1991 to the post-2017 independence referendum period. The main objective is to identify the factors that have shaped shifts and continuities in Iran's approach toward the KRG and to assess the explanatory value of Rosenau's idiosyncratic, role, governmental, societal, and systemic variables. Methodologically, the study adopts a qualitative and historical-analytical approach based on the review of academic literature, official statements, policy documents, and secondary sources concerning Iran–KRG relations. The findings reveal that Iran's policy has evolved from a predominantly ideological orientation rooted in the principles of the Islamic Revolution toward a more pragmatic and increasingly preemptive security strategy driven by national security concerns, regional power competition, and domestic stability considerations. Particularly, the 2017 KRG independence referendum marked a critical turning point, prompting Iran to adopt a more assertive and preemptive coercive position, including the targeting and elimination of perceived threats within KRG territory, as a primary instrument of its security-centered regional policy. The analysis further demonstrates that, despite variations in presidential leadership styles from Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani to Masoud Pezeshkian, Iran's core objectives remained largely consistent due to the decisive influence of the Supreme Leader and security institutions, particularly the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). The study concludes that governmental and systemic variables exert a greater influence than individual leadership traits in shaping Iran's long-term policy toward the KRG, and that the preemptive security dimension of this policy has become its defining feature in the post-referendum period
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