A política externa iraniana no Médio Oriente: o governo regional do Curdistão como estudo de caso
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.51247/st.v9i3.818Palavras-chave:
Política externa do Irão; Governo Regional do Curdistão (GRC); James N. Rosenau; análise de política externa; pragmatismo e mudança ideológica; política de segurança preventiva; eliminação coerciva de ameaças; estratégia regional da Guarda Revolucionária Islâmica (IRGC)Resumo
Este estudo aplica a estrutura de Análise da Política Externa de James N. Rosenau para examinar a evolução da política do Irão em relação ao Governo Regional do Curdistão (GRC) desde o estabelecimento da autonomia curda no norte do Iraque em 1991 até ao período pós-referendo de independência de 2017. O principal objetivo é identificar os fatores que moldaram as mudanças e continuidades na abordagem do Irão em relação ao GRC e avaliar o valor explicativo das variáveis idiossincráticas, de papel, governamentais, sociais e sistémicas de Rosenau. Metodologicamente, o estudo adopta uma abordagem qualitativa e histórico-analítica baseada na revisão da literatura académica, declarações oficiais, documentos de políticas públicas e fontes secundárias sobre as relações Irão-GRC. Os resultados revelam que a política do Irão evoluiu de uma orientação predominantemente ideológica, enraizada nos princípios da Revolução Islâmica, para uma estratégia de segurança mais pragmática e cada vez mais preventiva, impulsionada por preocupações com a segurança nacional, a competição pelo poder regional e considerações de estabilidade interna. Em particular, o referendo de independência do Governo Regional do Curdistão (GRC) de 2017 marcou um ponto de viragem crítico, levando o Irão a adoptar uma postura coerciva mais assertiva e preventiva, incluindo a orientação e a eliminação das ameaças percebidas dentro do território do GRC, como instrumento principal da sua política regional centrada na segurança. A análise demonstra ainda que, apesar das variações nos estilos de liderança presidencial, desde Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani a Masoud Pezeshkian, os objectivos centrais do Irão permaneceram amplamente consistentes devido à influência decisiva do Líder Supremo e das instituições de segurança, particularmente a Guarda Revolucionária Islâmica (IRGC). O estudo conclui que as variáveis governamentais e sistémicas exercem uma influência maior do que as características individuais da liderança na formação da política de longo prazo do Irão em relação ao GRC, e que a dimensão de segurança preventiva desta política se tornou a sua característica definidora no período pós-referendo
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