Evolution of public investment and its impact on ecuadorian economic growth during 2015–2025
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.51247/pdlc.v7iEspecial1.1003Keywords:
public investment; economic growth; Annual Investment Plan (PAI); Gross Domestic Product (GDP); fiscal policyAbstract
Public investment is a fiscal policy instrument aimed at strengthening productive capacity and fostering economic growth through the financing of strategic projects. This study analyzed the evolution of public investment and evaluated its impact on Ecuador's economic growth during the 2015–2025 period. A quantitative approach with a descriptive and correlational scope and a non-experimental longitudinal retrospective design was employed. Data were obtained from budget execution reports issued by the Ministry of Economy and Finance and macroeconomic statistics published by the Central Bank of Ecuador. The analysis included descriptive statistics, the Shapiro-Wilk normality test, Pearson's correlation coefficient, and a simple linear regression model. The results revealed a decline in public investment throughout most of the study period, with partial recoveries in 2021 and 2024. No statistically significant relationship was found between the Annual Investment Plan (PAI) as a share of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and economic growth (r = −0.168; p = 0.621), a finding confirmed by the regression model (R² = 0.028; p = 0.621). It is concluded that public investment did not have a significant impact on Ecuador's economic growth during the study period, suggesting that economic performance depends on multiple macroeconomic factors and on the efficiency of public investment execution
Downloads
References
Ayala, G., & Adrianzen, L. (2021). La gestión de proyectos de inversión pública en el Latinoamérica y sus alcances. Sinergias educativas(E1), 1-13. doi:10.37954/se.vi.258
Caldas, R., Castillo, B., & Castillo, F. (2023). Gobernabilidad estratégica en el contexto del desarrollo económico y la inversión pública. Revista Venezolana de Gerencia, 28(10), 1246-1263. doi:10.52080/rvgluz.28.e10.23
Chancusig, G. (2022). Efectos de la inversión pública en el crecimiento económico del Ecuador. Cuestiones Económicas, 32(1), 32-59. doi:10.47550/RCE/32.1.2
Chancusig, G. (2022). Inversión pública y crecimiento económico en Ecuador. Cuestiones Económicas.
Chatterjee, S., Lebesmuehlbacher, T., & Narayanan, A. (2021). How productive is public investment? Evidence from formal and informal production in India. Journal of Development Economics, 151. doi:10.1016/j.jdeveco.2021.102625
Espinoza-Freire, E. E. (2025). Estrategias de búsqueda de información en bases de datos científicas: Una guía práctica. Sociedad & Tecnología, 8, 647-658.
Espinoza-Freire, E. E. (2025). La investigación cuantitativa: fundamentos, características y aplicaciones en las ciencias sociales. Sociedad & Tecnología, 8, 1283-1298.
Gallagher, K., Ocampo, J., & Sen, K. (24 de Mayo de 2025). Cómo lograr que la deuda de los países en desarrollo sea sostenible. El Paía.
International Monetary Fund. (2020). Fiscal Monitor: Policies for the Recovery. Washington, DC.: International Monetary Fund.
Lahera, E. (2004). Política y políticas públicas. CEPAL. Obtenido de https://repositorio.cepal.org/server/api/core/bitstreams/c009498b-5162-402b-b338-c5ffdab30714/content
Linarez, J., & Villalobos, O. (2023). Inversión pública para el crecimiento de los gobiernos locales: revisión sistemática. Ciencia Latina Revista Científica Multidisciplinar, 7(3), 1249-1262. doi:10.37811/cl_rcm.v7i3.6268
Luna, L., Flores, M., Cohello, G., Nizama, M., & García, A. (2025). Evolución de la inversión pública en el contexto de la modernización del Estado: Revisión sistemática. Impulso. Revista de Administración, 5(12), 39-60. doi:10.59659/impulso.v.5i12.169
Medeiros, V., Ribeiro, R., & Amaral, P. (2025). Infrastructure, growth, and regional disparities: Looking at efficiency, redistribution, and equity goals in road investments. Research in Transportation Economics, 115. doi:10.1016/j.retrec.2025.101668
Nguyen, Q., Tran, D., Tran, X., Pham, N., & Nguyen, N. (2025). The complex relationship between carbon dioxide emissions, foreign direct investment, and economic growth in Asian countries. Discover Sustainability, 6(831), 1-22. doi:10.1007/s43621-025-01730-8
Ruiton, J., Hidalgo, H., & Figueroa, A. (2018). La inversión pública en riego y el crecimiento económico del sector agrario en el Perú, en el periodo 2001 – 2015. Gobierno y Gestión Pública, 5(1), 1-23.
Saucedo, P., Acevedo, E., Sánchez, D., & Abou, A. (2026). Dinámica del Modelo de Solow Swan mediante Ecuaciones Diferenciales. Ciencia Latina Revista Multidisciplinar, 10(1), 12436-12451. doi:10.37811/cl_rcm.v10i1.22984
Terrones, V., & Tol, R. (2022). Relevance of financial development and fiscal stability in dealing with disasters in Emerging Economies. Arxiv, 1-24. doi:10.48550/arXiv.2211.08078
Tovar, J., Park, D., & Qureshi, I. (2024). Public and Private Investment as Catalysts for Growth: An analysis of emerging markets and developing economies with a focus on Asia. Journal of International Money and Finance, 148, 1-10. doi:10.1016/j.jimonfin.2024.103166
Travieso, C. (2021). La productividad y las teorías de crecimiento económico. COFIN Habana, 16(1), 1-10. Obtenido de http://scielo.sld.cu/pdf/cofin/v16n1/2073-6061-cofin-16-01-e04.pdf
Valencia, P., Valencia, P., & Farfán, J. (2024). Inversión pública para el desarrollo nacional: Una revisión sistemática. Impulso, 4(8), 246-263. doi:10.59659/impulso.v.4i8.60
Wei, X., Mohsin, M., & Zhang, Q. (2022). Role of foreign direct investment and economic growth in renewable energy development. Renewable Energy, 192. doi:10.1016/j.renene.2022.04.062
Zhang, J., Chen, X., & Zhao, X. (2023). A perspective of government investment and enterprise innovation: Marketization of business environment. Journal of Business Research, 164. doi:10.1016/j.jbusres.2023.113925
Downloads
Published
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2026 Tanner Galindo Cobos-Corella, Holger Fabrizzio Bejarano-Copo
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
