Potential risk of Fusarium R4T on investment decisions in the ecuadorian banana sector
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.51247/pdlc.v7iEspecial1.922Keywords:
Fusarium Wilt Tropical Race 4 (Foc R4T); banana sector; investments; phytosanitary risk; EcuadorAbstract
Banana production is one of the strategic pillars of the Ecuadorian economy, generating employment, foreign exchange, and driving regional development. In this context, the possible introduction and spread of *Fusarium oxysporum* f. sp. *cubense* Tropical Race 4 (Foc R4T), considered the most devastating disease of banana cultivation, represents a significant threat to the productive and financial sustainability of the sector. Its spread in neighboring countries has increased the perceived risk among producers and investors, generating uncertainty about profitability, operational continuity, and the allocation of investment resources. The objective of this research was to analyze the impact of the risk associated with Fusarium wilt Tropical Race 4 (Foc R4T) on investment decisions in the Ecuadorian banana industry, with an emphasis on companies in the province of El Oro. A mixed-methods approach was adopted, integrating the analysis of financial statements for the 2024 period with a review of specialized scientific literature on the economic and financial impacts of the disease. The results will allow for the identification of the potential effects of this phytosanitary risk on the investment structure, operating costs, liquidity, and financial responsiveness of banana companies in the face of different threat scenarios. Furthermore, the study provides evidence to strengthen risk management and support the design of public policies aimed at preserving the competitiveness, resilience, and sustainability of Ecuador's main agro-export chain
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